FidelityConnects: Materials in Motion – Trends shaping 2026

FidelityConnects: Materials in Motion – Trends shaping 2026

Mark Schoeffel / 09 January 2026

Today's webinar explored the accelerating global demand for minerals, mining, and commodities, framing it within a broader macroeconomic and geopolitical context. Host Pamela Ritchie opened by noting that prices for key commodities such as copper, silver, uranium, and other critical minerals have reached multi-year highs as demand grows for the materials underpinning electrification, artificial intelligence (AI), renewable energy, and modern infrastructure. Canada’s strategic position was emphasized, with the country hosting 34 critical minerals used in applications ranging from electric vehicle batteries to medical devices. Against this backdrop, the discussion focused on how government policy, tariffs, financing structures, and merger and acquisition (M&A) activity are shaping the investment landscape.

Claire Fleming explained that the current momentum in commodities has been building for some time and is not solely the result of recent AI-related demand. She highlighted several supportive macro drivers, including increased fiscal stimulus from Western governments and China, a weaker U.S. dollar, a global shift away from U.S. dollar-denominated assets, and the avoidance of worst-case tariff scenarios that had previously weighed on growth expectations. In addition, governments are providing more direct and indirect support to the resource sector, which has improved sentiment across commodities as an asset class.

A key theme was the challenge of financing new mining projects. Fleming noted that while demand fundamentals are strong, access to capital has historically constrained supply growth. Governments have increasingly stepped in through direct equity investments, partnerships, and “offtake agreements” (long-term contracts in which a buyer commits to purchasing future production, often providing upfront capital to help fund project development). These structures can reduce financing risk and limit dilution for existing shareholders while helping projects advance toward production.

The discussion then turned to consolidation within the mining industry, particularly in copper. Fleming outlined how large global players are weighing the trade-off between organic growth (building new mines, which is capital-intensive and time-consuming) and acquisitions of existing producers, which can provide immediate cash flow and reduce construction and development risk. M&A activity is also driven by potential synergies, such as shared infrastructure between geographically proximate assets. While it is difficult to predict the timing or scale of further consolidation, Fleming noted that limited new project sanctioning in recent years and ongoing supply challenges could keep M&A a relevant strategic option.

Operational constraints were also addressed. Fleming emphasized that beyond capital, the availability of skilled labor and experienced project teams is a critical bottleneck. Mining projects are highly complex, and if multiple developments are sanctioned simultaneously, competition for talent could become a material constraint. However, higher prices for precious metals such as gold and silver have helped offset some cost pressures. Many copper mines produce gold or silver as by-products (secondary metals recovered during copper production), which can meaningfully improve project economics and margins in both existing operations and new developments.

On copper markets specifically, Fleming discussed short-term dynamics alongside long-term structural demand. In the near term, U.S. stockpiling ahead of potential tariffs on refined copper has tightened global supply, as inventories have been drawn into the U.S. market from other regions. This has occurred even as overall global inventories have risen. On the supply side, disruptions and delays at several major global mines have further contributed to market tightness. Over the longer term, copper demand is supported by electrification, grid investment, electric vehicles, renewable energy, and AI infrastructure, while supply growth has lagged due to under-investment in new projects.

The conversation also revisited nuclear energy and uranium. Fleming described recent government actions, including funding commitments related to reactor development, as part of a broader effort to rebuild the nuclear supply chain. Nuclear power is increasingly viewed as a reliable source of baseload electricity to support AI and data-center growth. While uranium prices and related equities have already seen significant appreciation, Fleming noted that investor perspectives vary by style. Valuation-focused investors may be more cautious after the run-up, while growth-oriented investors continue to focus on long-term fundamentals, including permitting progress and new project development in regions such as Saskatchewan.

Agriculture and potash were discussed as a contrast to metals. Potash demand has historically been stable, driven by global food production needs, and the supply pipeline is more visible, with several new projects scheduled to come online. Fleming noted early signs of stabilization in agricultural fundamentals, including crop prices and government support for farmers, and highlighted that investment opportunities can exist across the broader agricultural value chain, not just fertilizer producers.

The webinar also touched on forest products and softwood lumber, a sector long affected by trade disputes between Canada and the United States. Fleming outlined how weak U.S. housing activity has pressured demand, leading to production curtailments as mills approach cost-curve limits (the point at which operating costs approximate market prices). Trade duties and tariffs remain an ongoing challenge, although government support programs may provide liquidity for smaller producers. Importantly, many Canadian-listed forest products companies have diversified operations in the U.S., meaning they could benefit from any recovery in U.S. housing activity.

Finally, broader geopolitical developments, including changes in energy markets and regional gas availability, were discussed in terms of their indirect effects on materials and chemical supply chains. Fleming noted that energy availability, particularly natural gas, plays a critical role in the production of chemicals and fertilizers, and shifts in regional supply could alter cost structures over time.

In closing, Fleming emphasized cautious optimism. Despite volatility and sector-specific risks, the resource and materials sectors benefit from multiple long-term tailwinds, and Canada occupies a unique position in global commodity markets. She highlighted the importance of disciplined analysis, recognizing differing risk-reward profiles across sub-sectors, and aligning investment opportunities with individual portfolio objectives and styles.

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Disclosure

This summary is provided for informational purposes only. The views summarized are those expressed during the Fidelity Investments webinar by the participants and do not reflect the opinions of, nor constitute advice from, Mark Schoeffel or iA Private Wealth Inc. This material should not be construed as investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Investors should consult their own financial advisor to determine whether any strategies or themes discussed are suitable for their individual risk tolerance, financial circumstances, and investment objectives.